DOHA, 26 March 2009
The Gulf Co-operation Council is projected to be a US$2trn economy by 2020, according to new long-term forecasts from the Economist Intelligence Unit
The GCC countries have become increasingly important players in the global economy during the recent oil boom—as major exporters of oil and gas, sources of liquidity, and as investment destinations in their own right. How will their role change as trade patterns and economic weight continue to shift, as energy security and efficiency become increasingly pressing issues, and as the world deals with the fall-out from a major financial crisis?
The GCC in 2020: Outlook for the Gulf and the Global Economy is a new Economist Intelligence Unit report, sponsored by the Qatar Financial Centre Authority, which examines likely developments in the GCC over the next decade, and explores how the region’s relationship with the global economy might evolve. Based on long-term forecasts and projections from the Economist Intelligence Unit, along with a programme of in-depth interviews with experts on the region, the report forecasts that the GCC will be a US$2trn economy by 2020.
"Our report demonstrates the growing development of the GCC as an economic and trading hub," says Jane Kinninmont, an editor and economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit and author of the report. "However, there will be challenges for the region to overcome, including increasing global competition for migrant labour as the world’s population ages. The fortunes of member states could diverge as some states diversify their economies faster than others and as some face declining oil and gas production; further economic integration will require strong political will."
Key findings from the report include the following:
The GCC will grow in importance as an economic and trading hub. In 2020, the GCC is projected to be a US$2trn economy, providing nearly one-quarter of the world’s oil supplies as well as increasing quantities of petrochemicals, metals and plastics. As economic weight gradually shifts southwards and eastwards, emerging markets will become increasingly important trading partners and investment destinations.
There is a broad consensus that the GCC will continue to look eastward for new trade and investment links. India is forecast to join China as one of the top five economies in the world in 2020, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s long-term forecasts. Gulf investors and sovereign wealth funds are likely to diversify their assets into Asia and Africa, and the region is likely to export more of its oil to industrialising countries.
There is likely to be closer economic and political integration between GCC countries. Under our core scenario, the GCC is likely to continue gradual efforts at economic integration, including a single currency, a single central bank and greater harmonisation of legal and regulatory environments. But political will is key. Economic integration will depend on good political relations, but will take precedence over political integration. Development of a common foreign policy or a strengthening of shared security forces remains a longer-term project.
Monetary union will be in place and there may be a shift from the dollar peg. By 2020, it is likely that the GCC countries will peg their common currency to a trade-weighted basket of currencies, although one or two states may opt out. Any such basket will be heavily weighted towards the dollar—unless there is a global shift away from the practice of trading oil in dollars. Commodity prices (e.g. for oil and gold) may also be included in the basket.
There will be a greater focus on manufacturing. Production of hydrocarbons in the GCC could rise substantially by 2020, but one likely trend is that the region will be seeking to export a smaller proportion of its oil as crude – a low value added commodity that offers few employment opportunities. Instead, GCC states will aim to turn more of their oil into refined products or petrochemicals, and to use their oil and gas resources as feedstocks for industries that will add more value and provide more jobs. However, the GCC will remain dependent on foreign labour by 2020 despite a range of efforts to encourage the employment of nationals.
GCC spending on food imports is projected to more than double from US$24bn in 2008 to US$49bn by 2020. An important reason for this growth in imports is water scarcity, which means that domestic agricultural production tends to be costly. Between now and 2020, GCC countries will explore wide-ranging purchases of agricultural land in regions such as Africa, Central Asia and Southeast Asia, in order to strengthen food security. While these investments could boost agricultural production in poor countries, there is a risk of political backlash, especially in times of food shortages.
Press enquiries:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Joanne McKenna, Press Liaison, +44 (0)20 7576 8188, joannemckenna@eiu.com
Rob Mitchell, Senior Editor, +44 (0)20 7576 8244, robmitchell@eiu.com
About the report
The GCC in 2020: Outlook for the Gulf and the Global Economy is a white paper written by the Economist Intelligence Unit and sponsored by the Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) Authority. The findings are based on two main strands of research:
- A programme of in-depth analysis, conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit, which drew on its own long-term forecasts and projections of the six GCC economies, along with other published sources of information.
- A series of interviews in which economists, academics, and leading experts in the development of the GCC were invited to give their views.
About the Economist Intelligence Unit
The Economist Intelligence Unit is the business information arm of The Economist Group, publisher of The Economist. Through our global network of 650 analysts, we continuously assess and forecast political, economic and business conditions in more than 200 countries. As the world's leading provider of country intelligence, we help executives make better business decisions by providing timely, reliable and impartial analysis on worldwide market trends and business strategies.
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